COCHRANE: Economists should never make predictions.John Cochrane (2021). Conversations with Tyler
COWEN: But theories make predictions.
COCHRANE: Theories make conditional predictions. Theories make if x happens and you hold everything else constant, then y ought to happen. Economics is awfully bad at making unconditional predictions. “Here’s what’s going to happen.” Period. …
So yes, it’s about risk. It’s not about the forecast. That’s a good way of putting it.